I just read an article in the NY Times about 3-D printers. They are basically machines that take digital three-dimensional plans for anything and then create a physical, solid object out of them. I didn’t know these things actually existed, but apparently they have been used in the industry for years, though they are very expensive. The article talks about efforts by one company, Desktop Factory, to bring the cost of a 3-D printer low enough that it can be bought for the home.
Granted, the solid objects created are made of a single material, nylon powder, and look like dull, grey toy parts. But let me project a little into the future. As these printers get better and better, and why shouldn’t they, the could end up solving one of the major hangups of online retailing: the lack of instant gratification. Unlike digital products, which can be acquired immediately online, physical products have to by shipped, which takes time. Sometimes, a customer wants that new basket ball right away and will choose to go to a physical store to get it, instead of ordering it online. But what if the customer could simply “print” the basket ball at home? Maybe something like this (from Wired, Issue 14:12, December 2006):
I also know the danger of making future predictions, like this one from the NY Times article:
“In the future, everyone will have a printer like this at home,” said Hod Lipson, a professor at Cornell University, who has led a project that published a design for a 3-D printer that can be made with about $2,000 in parts.
Sentences that start with “In the future, everyone will…” are dangerous. Between 1966-1967 the following predictions were supposedly made in The Wall Street Journal:
By the year 2000:
- Man will land on Mars
- Cities will thrive under huge climate controlled domes
- Travelers will fly from New York to Tokyo in under 2 hours
- Commuters will strap rockets on their backs and jet to work, or at least commute in small two-seater flying automobiles
- There will be 200,000 computers in the United States
Need I say more?
Posted by technodarwinism 
